Even though I was born and raised in the Catholic church, all that remains of my Catholocism is a curiousity about the "real" history of the religion. Hard to be a Medieval historian without being a religious historian.
All of that aside, the Church is at a crossroads. Benedict elevated many Cardinals, so it is unlikely the upcoming conclave will elect a liberal reformist. But there is a unique opportunity to elect a moderate. Take a look at all of the names tossed out today and realize that it is highly unlikely that any of them will emerge as the next Pope. There have been rumblings of electing a Latin American cardinal, I think there is a better than even chance of that happening. I also think there is a slightly less likely chance of an Italian returning to the Seat of Peter. You will hear the possibility of an African cardinal being elected. I view this as highly unlikely, despite Pope watchers making noises about it. They are more likely to elect an American cardinal over an African cardinal.
So, the best LGBT Catholics can expect is a moderate reformer. Latin America is the best place for a moderate reformer to come from, followed by an Italian/Western European, and then US American (Timothy Cardinal Dolan has been mentioned by some Pope watchers).
If the Church chooses to elect a traditionalist expect a cardinal from Africa or Eastern Europe. They will not elect another German. This Pope was (and still is) wildly unpopular in Italy. When he was elected the headlines read "Tedesco Pastorale" (German Shepherd). The Italians thought Benedetto was too "rigido." There will be no Opus Dei candidates and a Jesuit is highly unlikely too. Expect Dominican as the leading possibilty out of De Orderes Majeure. I also rate the chances of an older (70+ years old) candidate to be slim. The conclave will want stability so they most likely will try to elect a cardinal in his early 60's.
On a final note, expect the next Pope to really shake up the higher offices (SCDF, Vatican Secretary of State) by reassigning certain cardinals elsewhere (Gerhard Cardinal Mueller who is the head of the Inquisition/SCDF comes immediately to mind). All of my predictions go out the window if they elect a familiar of Ratzinger.
The last Pope to retire did so in 1415...so these are odd days in the Vatican where the Pope usually goes out feet first.
Now we see how terrible my predictions are...
~Jeff
aka Lorenius